Quiz Entry - updated: 2026.07.14
In a qualitative risk analysis, what does a 5-level Eintrittshäufigkeit (likelihood) scale look like, and what probability ranges does it map to?
Sehr selten (<10%) → Selten (10-35%) → Möglich (36-64%) → Oft (65-90%) → Sehr oft (>90%).
The recommended scale, with English equivalents and probability bands:
| Level | German | English | Probability (WSK) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sehr selten | remote | < 10% |
| 2 | Selten | unlikely | 10% ≤ WSK < 35% |
| 3 | Möglich | possible | 36% ≤ WSK < 64% |
| 4 | Oft | likely | 65% ≤ WSK < 90% |
| 5 | Sehr oft | certain | > 90% |
Why probability bands are anchored: different people interpret "likely" very differently. Studies show "likely" can mean anywhere from 25% to 90% to different readers. Mapping each label to a range forces a shared interpretation.
Important nuance: This is probability over the assessment period (typically 1 year), not raw rate. "Sehr oft" doesn't mean "100% certain ever" — it means "almost certain within the year you're evaluating."