What does the photography industry's history (1995–2005) teach about long-term innovation processes?

Analog photography was replaced by digital within a decade — incumbents who clung to the old technology too long (most famously Kodak) lost the market despite dominating it.

The timeline: in 1995, film cameras and chemical processing ruled; by 2000, digital cameras emerged; by 2005, digital had taken over the mass market — and the entire value chain (film, development labs, printing) collapsed with it.

The lessons:

• Technology S-curves end. Riding the current curve efficiently (Reifephase: optimize, rationalize) is exactly what blinds you to the next curve.
• "Rechtzeitig umsteigen?" (switch in time?) is the strategic question of the maturity phase — Kodak even invented the digital camera in 1975 and still failed to make the jump.
• Disruption rarely announces itself through existing customers — they keep asking for better film until they suddenly don't.

Security angle: the same pattern hits security technology — perimeter firewalls → zero trust, passwords → passkeys. Security architectures need "switch in time" decisions too.

Go deeper:

• Disruptive innovation (Wikipedia) — Christensen's theory of how incumbents (Kodak among them) get displaced by new technology curves.