What is the anchoring effect, and why does the first number you hear distort your judgement?

The first piece of information you receive — especially a number — becomes a reference point that drags all your later estimates toward it.

The mechanism is that the mind doesn't estimate from scratch; it grabs whatever value is nearby and adjusts from there — but the adjustment is almost always too small, so the final answer stays stuck near the anchor. The anchor works even when it's obviously arbitrary or irrelevant.

Example: A jacket marked "was $300, now $150" feels like a bargain because $300 anchored your sense of its worth — whereas the same jacket simply priced at $150 might seem expensive. Salary negotiations, price tags and "starting bids" all exploit this.

Tip: Before letting a quoted figure shape your estimate, ask "what would I have guessed if I'd never heard that number?" — then judge from there.