What is the reliable fix for miscalibrated judgments of learning?

Self-test with the answer HIDDEN — a genuine retrieval attempt gives honest feedback and de-biases your predictions.

The core error (foresight bias) comes from judging while the answer is visible. Remove the answer and force an actual retrieval, and now your prediction is grounded in the real task — producing the material unaided — instead of the warm glow of familiarity. You feel the gaps directly.

Two supporting moves: trust test performance over the feeling of knowing, and prioritize the items you got WRONG, not the ones that merely feel unfamiliar. A hidden-answer test is a calibration instrument, not just a study method.